Welcome to the ASX 200 Live Blog for Friday, May 15th, 2026. Today's market is set to be a busy one, with a high volume of posts expected pre-market and throughout the day. We'll be wrapping up the blog around 2:00 pm AEST. Let's dive into the key stories and market movements:
Banks on the Rebound, But Still Down for the Week
In early trade, most major banks are up around 1%, but they're still down 3-5% for the week. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is down a staggering 9.9% week-to-date. This sector is a mixed bag, with some banks bouncing back while others continue to struggle.
Lithium Prices and Macquarie's Insights
Macquarie has flagged a key inflection point in lithium prices at 200,000 yuan a tonne (US$29,500/t LCE). This level is where investor FOMO meets downstream margin compression. Spot spodumene is trading above US$2,800 a tonne, and China lithium carbonate is at around US$28,000 a tonne. The implications for ESS project economics in Southeast Asia and China are significant.
Lithium Stocks Take a Hit
Lithium stocks are trading sharply lower after Chinese carbonate prices fell 5.0% on Thursday. This is a concerning development for the sector, with companies like Mineral Resources (MIN), Pmet Resources (PMT), and Liontown (LTR) taking a hit. The market is reacting to the potential impact on project economics and earnings.
Tech Stocks on the Rise
The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is up 3.3% in early trade, but it's still down around 3% in the last six sessions. Xero (XRO) is experiencing a strong bounce after Thursday's results-driven selloff, and Megaport (MP1) continues to rally despite surging ~27% yesterday. This sector is showing resilience, with some tech stocks bouncing back from recent lows.
Macquarie's Bapcor Target Cut
Macquarie has cut its target price for Bapcor by 27% after the company lowered its FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~5% at the midpoint. The downgrade is attributed to the Middle East conflict and rate-driven trading deterioration since late March. This move reflects the challenges facing the company in a volatile market.
Astral Resources Makes a Significant Discovery
Astral Resources has returned a significant deep intercept at its Mandilla project in WA. The mineralisation is largely outside the existing 1.4Moz Theia resource. This discovery is a major positive for the company and the sector, with potential implications for future production and resource estimates.
Vicinity Centres Expands Its Footprint
Vicinity Centres has exchanged contracts to acquire the Eastern Creek Quarter hybrid retail asset in Western Sydney for $400m. This move strengthens its metropolitan Sydney exposure and Outlet centre network. The asset is strategically located in a growth corridor with excellent access to transport links.
Alkane Resources Delivers Record Results
Alkane Resources has delivered record revenues, production, and earnings in Q3 2026. NPAT beat market expectations, supported by the Mandalay combination and stronger gold prices. The company has reaffirmed its FY26 guidance and is in a strong financial position.
Resolute Mining Pulls the Plug on the ABC Project
Resolute Mining has withdrawn its ABC project scoping study after ASX flagged issues with the production targets and financials. The original study had touted impressive metrics, but the ASX advised that the forward-looking statements lacked a reasonable basis due to the reliance on inferred resources. This is a setback for the project.
Polynovo Responds to ASX Query
Polynovo received a query from the ASX regarding abnormal volumes and price action. The company has stated that it was not aware of any material non-public information. This response is a positive sign for market confidence in the company.
Commodity Prices and Global Markets
Commodity prices have slipped overnight, with lithium carbonate futs down 4.99%, silver down 4.50%, and palladium down 3.98%. Global markets are also mixed, with the S&P 500 hitting new records on AI enthusiasm and strong Cisco results. The ECB's June rate hike is less certain as inflation spillover stays contained.
Newcastle Coal Exports on the Rise
Newcastle port's coal shipments have surged in April due to increased demand from AEAN and Indian markets. The Iran war and Hormuz disruption have forced countries back to thermal coal to meet energy needs. This is a positive development for coal producers and exporters.
Trump-Xi Summit and Geopolitical Tensions
The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing has delivered a 200-jet Boeing order, US clearance for Nvidia H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms, and an agreement to try and keep the Strait of Hormuz open. However, Xi's warning on Taiwan has punctured the cordial meeting, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Crude Output and OPEC's Outlook
Saudi crude output has collapsed to the lowest since 1990 due to the Iran war. OPEC has trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, but it's still well above the IEA's forecast of a contraction. This is a complex situation with significant implications for the global energy market.
Cerebras IPO and the AI Boom
Cerebras Systems has soared 68% on its Nasdaq debut, valuing the AI chipmaker at ~$95 billion. This is the largest US tech IPO since Uber in 2019. The company's strong performance signals a potential wave of AI IPOs ahead, with companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic potentially hitting the market.
AI Enthusiasm Pushes US Stocks Higher
US stocks hit fresh records as renewed AI enthusiasm, strong Cisco results, and resilient retail sales powered the rally despite war-driven energy cost pressures. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new highs, with Nvidia's market cap close to $6tn and Cisco up 13% on a solid outlook. This is a positive sign for the broader market.
In summary, today's market is a mix of positive and negative developments. Banks are on the rebound but still down for the week, lithium prices are under pressure, and tech stocks are showing resilience. Significant discoveries and acquisitions are boosting some sectors, while geopolitical tensions and commodity price movements are creating challenges for others. The AI boom continues to drive US stocks higher, with potential implications for the broader market.
